Aston Villa vs Chelsea
The day's early kick-off sees the Premier League's "best of the rest" fight it out for 3rd place. A win for Aston Villa would see them 3rd, tied with Liverpool - at least for a day (Liverpool meeting Man City on Sunday), or a 9 goal win would see Aston Villa climb to 2nd place (never know). Chelsea know that a loss could see them fall 13 points off the title race and, perhaps more importantly, could allow Arsenal to reduce their deficit from 4th place to just 2 points.
Aston Villa (who could go 5 points behind leaders Manchester United with a win) look to extend their unbeaten home record to 10 games - the type of feat Chelsea were once very familiar with. The Villains have taken 16 points from their last 6 League games - second to just Manchester United (18) in the form tables. During this time Villa have been slightly subdued in front of goal (scoring just 7), but magnificent at the back leaking only 2 goals. Milner and Heskey face fitness tests but life seems to be good at Villa Park. A record of no losses in 13 games is testament to that.
We're all familiar with the chaos at Stamford Bridge this season and are all quietly intrigued to see how on-field performances are effected. Guus Hiddink's boys have picked up 8 points in their last 6 Premier League games and (despite Guus' insistence) are more or less out of the title hunt. Champions League qualification must be the priority now with this 6 pointer being a huge part of securing that. Hiddink may just have an eye on this seasons Champions League - Juventus coming up. The Blues' side hasn't really clicked all too well of late and the addition of Ricardo Quaresma may further confuse matters. It is well known that Quaresma was unhappy at Inter and wanted out. The reason he chose Chelsea was simple - Luis Felipe Scolari. Guus Hiddink - a very methodical, selective manager - would have no qualms (normally) in leaving out a player he felt didn't fit the system he wanted to employ. Things may be very much different now that he is not once but twice directly under the payroll of Roman Abramovich who, in light of his recent reported $9bn losses, cannot miss out on another potential gold-mine player (Qauresma in the "Rnaldo market"). Hiddink therefore must pick his side according to (or at least in conjunction with) what the Russian billionaire would like to see on the turf at the Bridge - once again bringing up an interesting debate (for another day) about football as a business, not a sport. Just how "in charge" of Chelsea is Guus Hiddink. Is he just a show-manager until the season's end?
Chelsea have won their last 7 League games against Midland opposition (their last lost vs Villa in 2007) although records are clearly there to be broken. Whilst Chelsea's attack seemed impressive in the early running of this season, the Blues have scored just 6 in their last 6 Premier League games and conceded a shocking 8. Chelsea really are in a downwards spiral and this fixture may just come at the wrong time for them. The Londoners are without Ashley Cole, Alex and Ricardo Carvalho so will have an even shakier defence than usual. With Bosingwa bombing down the wing, Wayne Bridge bombing down the M6 and Branislav Ivanovic severely lacking match experience, it seems this match will contain goals.
It's not often that these two sides have met and Aston Villa have been favourites, but for me they are. The 9/4 price given by bookies is ridiculous, as is Chelsea's 5/4. Even if these prices were reversed, I'd say Villa were underestimated. This game is coming at the wrong time for Chelsea and the right time for Villa. In a game where a draw is no use to either side, Villa's confidence in their attacking prowess should shine through with their rock solid back line stubbing out the threat of Chelsea's off-form forwards.
Prediction
Aston Villa 2 : 1 Chelsea
